Homecoming: The Brand- By Girish Mirchandani (@RealGStandard)

 

On the surface, LeBron coming home is an amazing tale— a Hollywood type of feel good story of redemption, forgiveness, and going back to your roots. I get it. And I love it. As a fan of sports, this is amazing. No doubt about it. But I truly believe this is much more than just being back home in Northern Ohio for LeBron and why the man behind the brand is going to really benefit.

Apparently, LeBron spends his summer at his home in Akron with his family. An NBA athlete is not really home much anyway, you are on the road for about six to eight months. The NBA is a very long season with training camp starting in October and ending in June for championship teams—not if you play for Milwaukee or Philadelphia though, those seasons will end in April. But I am digressing. And with LeBron’s wealth, if he really wanted to be home with his family, he technically could still make Akron his home base and fly in and out to Miami—I don’t think he needs to use miles.

My point is, I don’t completely buy the whole “I am coming home” campaign as about doing it solely for Northern Ohio. That could be part of the reason, and a noble one indeed. However, I really believe LeBron is getting good advice that his personal brand is going to win big by coming home.

When LeBron left Cleveland, he did not do so with grace. And the media destroyed him rightfully so—including myself. I am considering myself part of the media—thank you to all of my six blog followers for being so loyal and faithful to me. But back to my point. LeBron became perceived as part villain in the media—a kid who left his loyal fans for greener pastures and turned his back on his hometown. And I believe his brand image was really damaged and although he won championships, he potentially lost millions in endorsement deals. And you might say, hold on, his endorsement earnings went up each year even after he went to Miami (from Forbes: http://onforb.es/1nebAUC). I still believe that LeBron is clearly more marketable by being in Cleveland. How many LeBron ads did you see in the NBA Finals? There was a lot more of “Cliff Paul”. If you were running a brand, who would you rather back, the hometown kid from Akron or the South Beach star? How many more endorsement deals is LeBron going to get by going home?

I have no way of proving this right now, this is just based on common sense. I don’t have any big data analytics to use and I barely remember how to perform regression analysis from my stats class in my MBA program. But I truly believe, LeBron is going to take his brand image to a whole new level. LeBron is now the good guy again, beloved by his hometown, and a hero in Cleveland. And if I am marketer, I would be willing to bank on that.

Some Pre-Draft Thoughts- by Girish Mirchandani

So here we are again, waiting for Cleveland to make the first pick.  Hopefully they get it right.  I would take Parker who seems like a safe bet.  A lot of people say that Wiggins has more upside but the Cavs need to make this pick work out.  It's not every year you get the first pick.  Hopefully they won't be at the lottery again next year...I have a feeling the Bulls are up to something big.  They need to shake things up.   If I am GarPax, I prepare for life without Rose.  If he comes back healthy, then that is a plus.  I think the Bulls might have to trade Gibson to clear some cap room and swing for the fences with Melo.  Not sure how well Mirotic can adjust to the NBA quickly but everyone seems high on him.  The Bulls also need someone that can shoot.  I hope they find a way to get McBuckets.  They have enough defensive players.  They need someone who can score...I think Phil Jackson should get Executive of the Year already.  I can't believe he found someone to take Felton off his hands and got back Calderon in return.  Sure he gave up Chandler but getting rid of Felton is a big plus.  Knicks are clearly focused on changing the culture which is the first step.  Let's see if he can find a taker for JR Smith! ...Bill Simmons seems to think the Celtics are involved in every trade but I don't think they trade Rondo.  Why would you if you were Ainge?  Who is better?   Rondo still can play and is a proven winer...I wonder where Embid goes?  It's a huge risk.  A team that can afford to take some risk is Orlando.  Other than Oladipo, they don't have a strong core of future stars.  They also have another lottery pick so they can some chances...Is Exum for real?  His highlight reels are amazing but can he really ball?  GMs have to love the fact that that he is 18 and can develop him....I love the mindset of the Rockets.  They clearly are going all in and dont' seem to want to settle.  Are the rumor true for LBJ for Harden?  Rockets would be unreal....Are the Ws getting Kevin Love?  I am torn on this one.  Love is in a class by himself but he is injury prone and do you really break up the core Klay and Steph?  It depends who the Ws can find to play the 2.  This is a tough call.  The Ws were so close and almost beat the Clips.  They might just need to stay the course; sometimes too much change can backfire....The Hornets have a real chance to improve themselves with a lottery pick and late first rounder.  If I were Charlotte, I call Atlanta and trade the 9th pick for Paul Mislap.  Then I would draft a young shooting guard with my late first rounder...The Thunder need some help.  They don't have much of a bench and need more depth.....On to he draft..With the first pick, the Cavs select.....

Playoffs, playoffs? -By Girish Mirchandani

Finally, the playoffs are here.  It should be a good one and there isn't a team that looks like a sure lock.  Before we get into the playoffs, let's review some regular season thoughts....Philly was horrible this year and so were the Bucks.  They clearly wanted to tank and I hope that their game plan works out...The Knicks should be embarrassed.  How can you not make the playoffs with Melo, Chandler, and Stat?  So the Hawks have a better lineup?  The Knicks came together too late and they started winning when Woodson inserted his best 5 players and stopped being so cute.  The rumor is that Steve Kerr is the next coach, he has no coaching experience but has a great pedigree....The Suns were awesome and the West should be scared.  They have a young team, a great coach, and lots of draft picks. They could be on to something....Poor Kevin Love.  He deserves to be on a good team.  He is scary good and a freak.  I wonder what the Wolves can do to turn things around.  Their lineup is actually really good. Maybe trade Rubio to a team like Orlando who has young assets?  What about Rubio and some fillers for Nelson and Aflallo?  Then the Wolves can draft a young PG and have some proven playoff vets on their squad.  For the Magic, Rubio and Oladipo backcourt is one that could create havoc....The Cavs are a mess.  I mentioned that in my earlier blog.  They have no real identity, they made bad trades playing for the present, and have no vision. If Bennett is their man, they should trade Thompson for a young SG or picks.  Thompson would look good in a  Suns uniform and can fit their style.  Mike Brown clearly needs to go...Now the playoffs.  The Spurs did it again.  Everyone loves to write them off and all they did is win.  Pop is a genius and they have a system unlike no other...Despite all the bad press and their recent woes, the Pacers did manage to win the East.  They did not finish strong but they do have homecourt.  I wonder if trading Granger was the root cause for their recent gloom.  Granger could have been the leader in the locker room (my theory)....Remember when everyone wrote off the Bulls and I wrote about how they will be fine.  Trading Deng was the best thing to happen to the Bulls because it forced Noah to take over the team.  What a season by Noah, huh?  Joakim has clearly elevated his game and his energy is contagious.  Augustin is another great story...Good to see the Mavs back in the playoffs although they got the Spurs...The Clippers Warriors should be a fun series.  I completely agree with Stephen A Smith who claims the Warriors should be better without Bogut as they will move the ball better.  Bogut is a decent defender but I think the Ws are better in a faster paced system.  I hope Mark Jackson starts Barnes at the PF spot and Lee plays the 5 spot.  Speaking of Mark Jackson, what's up with all his assistant coaches either leaving or getting fired?  Bizarre, and not a good sign.  He might be done in Oak-town...  Good to see the Nets come together, the Raptors back in the postseason, and the Heat...I don't feel like talking about them, they still really annoy me...The Rockets Blazers is a toss up and should be a high-octane shootout....Lots of good games today with my Bulls tomorrow night vs the Wizards...The Wizards are a young team and they have  a very good backcourt but my Bulls should take it in 5....Playoffs here we come although not looking forward to watching a thousand Cliff Paul State Farm commercials!

Luol Deng Trade Thoughts

I got a text from my nephew on late Monday night to call him right away.  We usually talk about sports so I checked Twitter and there it was - a post about Deng getting traded.  We were both in shock.  We knew Deng was rumored to be traded but surprised that the Bulls actually pulled the trigger.   

Number 9 was one of most consistent faces of the Bulls franchise and is the 4th leading Bulls' scorer of all time, joining Jordan, Pippen, and Bob Love.  I had no idea...9 years goes by quickly.  And he is a class act who Thibs would refer to as his "glue" guy. He is also a humanitarian and a model athlete (great article by Sam Smith: http://blogs.bulls.com/2014/01/luol-deng-leaves-a-powrful-bulls-legacy/).  

The Bleacher Reports does a great job of summing up Deng's career as a Bull and video highlights:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1915578-saying-goodbye-to-chicago-bulls-great-luol-deng

I always felt that the smart move was to trade Deng.  He is a free agent at the end of this year and and if they can't get a deal done, the savvy move is to trade him.  Particularly when the Bulls need some depth with Rose out. But what the Bulls got back in return was not much, at least for now. They got a player (Bynum) that they immediately waived and the potential for draft picks (complicated deal, protected picks)

Financially, the Bulls saved about $20M so I get it from a business standpoint.  It's a no-brainer.   Couldn't the Bulls have gotten more, in regards to players that can help them now?  Which makes me wonder...this has to be a piece in a master plan or at least I hope so.  I believe that the Bulls are stockpiling assets so they can find a way to get rid of Boozer via trade, not amnesty,  But for now, here is an analysis on how the Deng trade affects both teams:

The Bulls

Pros:
-They clear cap space for now.
-They get value for a player instead of letting him walk away for nothing.
-They get to give Snell more playing time.
-Forces other players like Butler , Gibson and even Noah to take more of a leadership role in the Bulls offense.
-Lottery pick if the Bulls don't win and potential picks coming from Cleveland via Sacramento Kings. 

 * I really don't like the idea of tanking for next season.  You can't guarantee that a lottery pick will be your savior  and make you better right away.  I prefer to make the playoffs and give the fans who paid money something to be excited about.  Even though last season was rough the Bulls/Nets series was fun to watch!

Cons:
-Leadership; Deng was the head of the Bulls.
-Weakens the bench with Dunleavy now being a starter.
-Versatility: Bulls are going to be more offensively challenged.  Bulls also have to make up for Deng's impressive stats this season (19 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists).

-Makes it easier for other teams to put a game plan together against the Bulls.  Who is going to put fear in an opponent?  

Predictions: Assuming the Bulls don't trade any of their core players like Hinrich, I predict this team becomes a 7th or 8th seed and makes the playoffs.  They have too much pride and are too well coached.  The Bulls just won 3 in a row as they are in the soft part of their schedule now.  Expect this to drop and the Bulls to get on an ugly losing streak.  But this is a tight core with guys who have a lot of heart and they will find a way to rely on their defense and hustle to wear down other teams.  

G-Standard Prescription: Find either a combo guard like a Jarrett Jack type or another wing player that can contribute off the bench.  If Hinrich gets injured, the Bulls are in trouble.  Who is going to back up Augustin?  The Bulls could really use another guard and someone that can put the ball in the hole. They signed Cartier Martin to a 10-day contract and he contributed last night.  He could stick if he consistently gives them a spark off the bench. 

The Cavs

Pros:

-Leadership.  Deng can mentor the young guys and be the calming force that is much needed in what has been talked about as a dysfunctional locker room.

-A 2 way player who will help the Cavs on both ends of the court.

-Someone Mike Brown can lean on; a coach on the floor.
-Gives the Cavs much needed stability for the 3 spot and a player who can put up points but won't force shots.  

Cons:
-Deng can leave after next season; he is a rental for this season.
-Even less playing time for 1st round pick in the draft Anthony Bennett as the Cavs got deeper.

Prediction: Cavs win more but don't make the playoffs.    The Nets are starting to win, Knicks are getting healthy, and the Celtics are getting Rondo back.  Who are the Cavs going to displace? Also, Mike Brown could not win with Kobe in LA and LeBron in Cleveland; how can we with Deng? And if the players don't buy into the coaching, it's hard to win.  At this point in his career, I believe Deng would prefer to play for a team that has championship potential.  I could see him end up with the Lakers, San Antonio,  Houston, or Portland next season.

Final Analysis:

Trades are fun but this one is not a great one for the Bulls, at least for the present moment.  It would have been great for the Bulls to get back some players that can help them win now. The Bulls traded their leader and have nothing to show for it.  Draft picks are nice but most players take time to develop and this trade could turn out to be a huge win in the future. 

Thanks and wishing everyone a prosperous, blessed, and all around amazing 2014.

G-Standard