To Tank or Not to Tank by Girish Mirchandani

 In addition to the playoff race heating up as winning teams are trying to lock up their best seed possible for home court in the playoffs in the NBA, there is a lot of talk these days about tanking. It can also be described as losing on purpose to get the best draft pick or simply put, throwing games. These include the non-potential playoff teams like the Kings, Bulls, Mavs, basically the bottom of the barrel. This past week, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver released the following statement about tanking on a memo with USA Today Sports:

“We have been careful to distinguish between efforts teams may make to rebuild their rosters, including through personnel changes over the course of several seasons, and circumstances in which players or coaches on the floor take steps to lose games…

"The former can be a legitimate strategy to construct a successful team within the confines of league rules; the latter -- which we have not found and hope never to see in the NBA -- has no place in our game. If we ever received evidence that players or coaches were attempting to lose or otherwise taking steps to cause any game to result otherwise than on its competitive merits, that conduct would be met with the swiftest and harshest response possible from the league office."

So, Tankers (let’s refer to them that way now) are now on alert.  The integrity of the game is being questioned by teams putting out losing rosters to get into the race for prized rookies like DeAndre Ayton (Arizona), Michael Porter, Jr. (Missouri), or Luka Doncic (Europe).  So, what should losing teams do that want to be relevant again and draft a potential star?

Before we explore what teams and the NBA should do, let’s ask the most basic question, Is tanking a viable strategy?  Sure, you can make the case that last year’s Rookie of the Year was a late 2^nd round pick by the Bucks (Malcom Brogdon, 36^th pick in the draft).  Blake Griffin, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Ben Simmons (Clippers, Timberwolves, and Sixers respectively), were the first pick in their draft and these players turned the franchise around.  The anti-tankers can look at Steph Curry, one of the biggest impact players to turn a franchise around and say he was picked 7^th, hence having a lower pick helps. If you look at the NBA in the last ten years, the average rookie of the year was picked third.  Tankers know that losing can help you get the franchise back to prominence by securing a top pick.  Remember, LeBron was the number one pick in his draft.  Can you imagine if the Cavs picked second and drafted Darko Milicic that year ( http://bit.ly/1J7xzGG)  ?

Teams that want to win know that intentionally losing is their best way out of purgatory.  So how do you solve this problem?  Adam Silver can fine teams but there could be a backlash from owners, Plus, how do you really enforce this? Some of this is obvious with a team like the Bulls who are sitting 2 starters right now but what about the Kings?  Do they get fined for every game for having a mediocre product?  What if a player is really injured and a team gets fined?  It could get ugly. 

The solution is a simple one in my opinion.  The NBA should employ an NIT style tournament for the non-playoff teams. The best records play the worst teams (this would encourage winning) in a single elimination game like March Madness. The winner of the Tankathon (we can come up with a better name), gets the 1^st pick. 

However, what if a team like the Pistons that is a borderline playoff teams gets the top pick and ends up winning the tournament.  Is that fair?  Not really, but at least teams will have an incentive to play hard.  And instead of a lucky ping-pong ball bounce, the top pick will get decided by winning.  And if I am a fan, I can get excited about that.  More importantly, the integrity of the game is restored.

Charging Forward by Girish Mirchandani

When the Bulls traded Jimmy Butler to the Wolves this past summer, the consensus was the Bulls struck a bad deal.  Jimmy is a 3 time All-Star, plays both ends of the court, and he was just hitting his stride. Words like tanking (losing to get a top draft pick) were thrown around the city of Chicago when describing the state of the Bulls and the focus was on the 2018 NBA Draft.  No one really knew if the pieces the Bulls received would pan out.  Can Kris Dunn become the point guard of the future, can Zach Lavine come back successfully from a torn ACL, and does rookie Lauri Markkanen belong in the NBA?  The future seemed dim for the Chicago Bulls.

Today, the Butler deal looks like it was a great move by Bulls organization, led by President John Paxson. Kris Dunn is starting to break through and has shown the ability to take over games. Markkanen is a top 5 rookie…even LeBron was gushing over him.  Zach Lavine looks like he is coming back to his old form and dueled with Butler the other night.  Lavine scored the final Bulls 8 points in the last minute in a victory over Minnesota and is showing his ability to be a closer—he also had the winning steal and bucket tonight against the Magic.  Dunn, Markkanen, and Lavine are 3 core pieces that the Bulls can build around. Having young athletes to build a team around is promising.  The Bulls have potentially 2 future All-Stars (Lavine and Markkanen) and Kris Dunn could turn into one.  2^nd year pro Denzel Valentine is also coming along and showing signs of improvement, he is looking more like a versatile utility player off the bench.

In this upcoming NBA draft, the Bulls could potentially land 2 lottery picks (their own plus the Pelicans pick).  The 2018 draft looks strong with potential franchise players and if the Bulls can pick up at least another high-quality starter, they might be back quickly.  There are questions about LeBron staying in Cleveland after this season, and outside of Boston and Toronto, the East looks wide open. The Bulls can be relevant again and their young core could grow up quickly to give the city of Chicago something to get excited about. 

Some other NBA thoughts:

Koby Altman did it.  The rookie GM transformed a lethargic team to one that is young, vibrant,  and motivated.  I know it’s only been a couple of games but the Cavs look like Eastern  Conference champs again…Can Houston really take on the Warriors in a 7 game series?  I am not sold on them.  Paul and Harden have never battled in a playoff series together.  It will be a fun series if they make it to the Western Conference finals and they look like the only real threat, but would anyone really bet against the core of Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green?…If Gordon Hayward can come back, the Celtics team will be really good and fun to watch….I really hope the Sixers make the playoffs.  The process took way too long, and they are a fun team. Embid is great for the NBA and he exudes joy every time he is on the court.  And Ben Simmons is the real deal…The Knicks are in trouble. Coming back from an ACL injury is tough and Porzingis was playing at a high level.  The Knicks only really have one star in Kristaps.  They need another star as a hedge and potential compliment if @kporzee comes back healthy…That’s all for now.  Thanks to all my loyal fans…all 2 of you.

   

Running of the Bulls by Girish Mirchandani

What if I told that the Bulls traded their home-grown All-Star for a combo guard coming off an ACL injury, a former lottery pick who is finding himself, a 20 yr. old Finnish bloke described as the next Channing Frye  while giving up the 16^th pick in the draft, would that be something you might be interested in (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24BAkcUEujQ) ?  To most Bulls fans, analysts, and the general media (like me J), the trade does not seem fair and very compelling.  And if you break it down and look at in on paper, it’s not. But let’s first start to give a shout out and some love to Jimmy G Buckets…the dude is an absolute force.  He plays defense like he was on the Pistons Bad Boys team, shows up every night, and has gotten better every season.  And let this sink in: Butler was a starter in the 2017 All Star Team http://ble.ac/2t5x7bR.  So why did the Bulls do it?  A lot of the writers that cover the Bulls say that the Bulls needed to do it to finally rebuild. The popular term that is going around is that they picked a lane.  IMHO, it’s too early to tell if this trade makes any sense.  What if Lauri Markkanen (http://bit.ly/2nf2FFR)  is the next great stretch 4 or 5 that is going to tear up the league?  It could work out and maybe Kris Dunn develops into a starting point guard and Levine comes back strong from his knee injury.  I'm just not crazy about giving up the 16^th pick.  If you really want to rebuild, you would try to collect as many draft picks and hope the players you pick develop.  You never really can tell from the draft…the 28^th pick can be more productive than the 8^th pick.  So, wouldn’t you want to split Aces?  I also don’t’ believe in this whole mentality that you need to do a full rebuild and have to tank to become championship worthy. Sure, your next best player is likely going to come from the draft and free agents are not lining up to come and play in Chicago, however, I believe that philosophy is flawed.  If I were GM of the Bulls, I would make it my goal to make the playoffs every year while building a championship core.  I believe it can be done and you don’t have to sacrifice your only true superstar in your lineup to get better.  What if the Bulls instead, kept the 16^th pick, found a way to get Kyle Lowry and signed a veteran 4 that can defend the pick and roll?  Remember the Bulls were up 2 games against the Celtics before Rondo went down. I really hope Paxson has a plan that is going to work.  Hence the Bulls are running from their 3  Alphas strategy to a complete rebuild in the last year.. 

So enough about the Bulls.  Let’s talk about the Cavs.  I really thought they would go 6 or 7 games and even have a shot to make it competitive or even win before the series started but you saw how Kevin Durant just tore the Cavs apart and the Ws made it look easy. Yes, they are that good...so what do the Cavs do?  They maybe have a 2-yr. window (if LBJ signs next year) to win another one.  I would get rid of Kevin Love.  The dude was not impressive at all.  I used to be a believer but I don’t understand why someone of his size and shooting prowess, has not found a way to take it inside and make them pay.  The Cavs need an inside force and Love is the not the answer.  Can you imagine if the Cavs had someone that can post up and be a serious inside threat who commands double teams, while dishing to LeBron or Kyrie?  The Cavs should find a way to get LMA…

Other thoughts…Danny Ainge must have a grand plan and he has really positioned the Cs for success with their young assets, draft picks, and still have the potential to sign a Gordon Hayward along with a rock star coach…. Now off to the land of Pied Piper and SeeFood (Octopus not Oculus) for you Silicon Valley fans, the Warriors are simply too good.  There is not much to say.  They have a great front office, an amazing coaching staff, and players that can flat out ball.  Durant will probably get even better, Curry is young, Klay is solid, and Draymond can take on the White Walkers by himself….

To close off.. It will be interesting to see what the Spurs do, who the Rockets go after, and what happens to CP3 and Blake Griffin in LaLa Land.  

Thank you to all my fans, yes all of 6 of you for staying loyal while I have been radio silent.  And finally, this blog is dedicated to the most amazing person in my life…. you know who you are.  FRIENDS?

Manila Traffic

I am heading uptown from the financial district in NYC where I live to Grand Central to get to work.  Although the cars are packed and there is no room to move and I am jammed like a QB that is about to get sacked, I am amazed at the marvel of the subway.  It's truly amazing.  I can get from downtown to midtown in 15 minutes (without minor subway delays)...and this route was built in the early 1900s (http://bit.ly/28YdGEp).

Moving on from NYC....Let's talk about to my hometown, Manila.  I was in Manila recently (May 2016) and was talking to a local healthcare worker about how he gets to work.  He takes the MRT (http://bit.ly/290CUqm) to get around and he says it's painful to get to and from work on his hour long ride.  He says it breaks down about over 50% of the time.  Even if it's 25% or say 10-15%, that is a lot.  How would you like to get to work and be stuck 10-25% of the time on a public transportation system?  Would that empower you to start your day on a high note?  Not fun, huh?   Can you imagine if you took the subway from Astoria to Manhattan every day to work which normally takes 40 minutes according to Google Maps (BTW, where the hell is Astoria?)  and you were stuck for a large percentage of the time?

For the last year or so, I noticed Facebook posts from my friends and family I grew up with in Manila were complaining about traffic.  And if you asked anyone in Manila if traffic is a problem, you are not going to get a good response…frustration, anger, and lack of hope.  Think of Cleveland fans before LeBron took over the series and brought his hometown the prize...I am digressing.  Back to Manila....How can you grow if you can't get people around to and from work?   According to the BBC (http://bbc.in/298Vm0W), Manila is the worst place to drive in the world.  And there is only one major public transportation route the MRT...no buses and jeepneys don't count.  I am talking high speed or something that moves that is not on a road or highway. 

Which brings me to my next point, how is Manila supposed to really prosper and take advantage of its main assets: western culture, friend of the USA, English speaking, educated people, warm people, and a country that aspires to be great, if the population can't move around.  Check out this map to show how crowded Manila has gotten (http://bit.ly/29mgHjv)

This is why I believe this is former President Marcos greatest crime.  How the F did he not think of this when he took over in 1965 and build a transportation?  And to the next Presidents that follow him, where is the vision and guts to make it happen?  Take a look at every major prosperous global city and they have a major high speed rail/subway or some sort of mass transportation systems: Tokyo, London, Seoul and Chicago.

So how can Manila and the Philippines fix this problem?  Can they build a subway on the fly or expand the MRT?  Imagine how much worse the traffic will get if they build one?  I have thought about this and I really don't know the answer.  One solution I came up with is to build a new city from the ground that is super modern that can be the new Manila.  Maybe Cavite which is close enough (30 miles) can become a hub and they can build a train that connects it to Manila and also build a light rail or something to take people around Cavite?  But then what happens to Manila then, do property values go down, restaurants might suffer, malls will suffer, and hotels lose revenue, etc.?

There has to be a solution.  I hope that new President Duterte makes this his mission and has the guts to make something happen.  He vowed to shake things up (http://yhoo.it/291ly94)...  Can he make something good happen on the transportation front?  I hope so.  Manila is a special place and the Philippines is a great country.  For those who have lived there and visited, you get it...  I really hope that there is a solution…God Bless the Philippines and Mabuhay (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mabuhay) 

In My Humble Opinion...NBA Thoughts by Girish Mirchandani

It’s been a while since my last blog and I decided it was time to let my growing reader base (from 6 to 10 people) know that I'm back.  Things are better now--I guarantee you are going to sleep well tonight. A few thoughts that have been on mind about my hometown Bulls, Phil Jackson, and the a few snippets about the NBA in my humble opinion

Let's start with Phil Jackson.  He is getting ripped apart for his "vacation" on his ranch.  Could Phil be recharging and accessing his higher self to come up with a solution to his head coaching vacancy and how he can guide the Knicks to the playoffs?  Possibly.  Or maybe Phil has a stealth plan behind the scenes regarding a coach that he has on his radar like Terry Stotts?  I believe the whole rumor that he is only considering Rambis is false.  If Phil wanted Rambis as his coach, why did he even hire Fisher?  I believe that Phil is a strategist and has a plan to bring on a world class coach and get the Knicks set up for success.  Would you seriously bet against the Zen Master? Trust comes to the forefront here.

Moving on to the Spurs; age really caught up with them.  They are an awesome team. I love their style, commitment to excellence, and their humility.  It’s looking like Duncan is very close to the end and knowing that the organization has such a strong culture of winning, I believe they will retool quickly.  This roster took them very far and they could contend with a few tweaks.  I believe the perfect scenario for them is to sign Dwight Howard and vice-versa.  Dwight needs the Spurs and they need him.  Imagine what Pop will do with a committed Dwight Howard playing next to LMA (La Marcus Aldridge)? I am not a big Dwight Howard fan but with the right culture and a coaching staff that is truly world class, he could get back to a new version of his younger self. Billy Donovan can coach.  Before the playoffs started, would anyone have thought the Thunder to pick apart the Spurs in 6 games and win?  Donovan doesn't seem to get rattled and exudes a calming presence, which produced great results with his team.  The Warriors/Thunder series is highly anticipated and will be fun to watch.

Finally, let's discuss my Bulls.  If you are a Bulls fan, you may have decided that watching old episodes of Murder She Wrote and Matlock marathons on Lifetime was more fun vis-à-vis the end of the 2016 regular season for this Bulls team. The verdict is still out on Hoiberg and management is clearly supporting him.  I believe the Bulls are going build around Bulter and he is not going anywhere. Bulter is a 2 way player and an all-star.  What can the Bulls get in return for him?  They might get some nice young players as part of a package but I don't believe a team will swap an all-star for another.  And Butler was home grown in Chicago and yesterday he was at the combine hanging around with Hoiberg and the team’s staff.  If am GarPax, here is what I would do: trade Rose, don't sign Noah, trade Dunleavy, let Gasol walk, and find a locker room leader.  The Bulls need a new voice.  When Noah went down and Hinrich got traded, the team fell apart. Maybe go after a Jason Terry (championship experience) type who won't take a lot of minutes but has seen a lot and can own the locker room and teach Butler how to lead. (BTW, I don't know if Terry is a good leader but someone like him).  Then the Bulls need to find a starting 3, and I believe, the biggest flaw in their roster this past season was a having a 35 year old starting small forward coming off back-surgery to compete against the elites.  I also suspect that the Bulls will trade Derrick Rose and use his expiring contract for leverage to maybe move up in the draft or find a center that they can build around.  Felicio ended the season on a strong note and they can find a younger starting 5.  Hypothetically, they can have a 2 headed monster (Felicio and a new center) to round out their roster. Hopefully with the luck of the draft, the Bulls could have a completely retooled line-up. They have a lot of talent and with some new pieces, they can get back into the winning groove.

To conclude, this blog is dedicated to my Dad who as some of you might know recently had a stroke but is recovering very well...a true inspiration.  

The 76ers, What a Mess!

Hello to all my fans and blog followers. That's right, all 6 of you. I am back. Been a busy time here in NYC and I feel strongly about this so let me resume blogging again this year.

What's going on with the Philadelphia 76ers? Seriously, the NBA should fine them.

Let me first start with why I love the Sixers. In the summer of 1983, my uncle was visiting from the States and I was in Manila without a clue about the NBA. I occasionally watched the PBA (Philippine Basketball Association) and boxing whenever it was on. But my Uncle Dilip said I must watch game 4 of the Sixers-Lakers NBA finals and to check out this guy named Julius Erving who was also known as Dr. J. I had no idea what to expect; and man was I hooked. Dr. J was wicked smooth and I really liked the rest of the team...Bobby Jones, Andrew Toney, Mo Cheeks, and Moses. What a team! The Sixers got me into basketball. I used to have a poster of number 6 (Dr. J) in my bedroom next to my Farah Fawcett poster. Not kidding. So the Sixers are responsible for my becoming a hoops junkie. Even though,  when i moved to Chicago in 1984 I followed a kid from UNC and my new hometown Bullls, the Sixers have always been special to me.Now, back to my thoughts on the Sixers of today.

What the heck is going on the City of Brotherly Love? Why trade away your best player for an unproven draft pick with a lot of potential? In two years if they become an elite playoff team than maybe you could say they had the right plan. But how can you charge top dollar for NBA tickets and put a D league talent on the court? Today, they just traded their  top two players, Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams and   KJ McDaniels. It just makes no sense. MCW is a tall point guard; a rare commodity. He is a potential triple double machine and only is his 2nd year. Why trade him for another draft pick? And KJ was a 2nd rounder who can ball. But let's go ahead and compare MCW to a couple of players and let me go Grantland on you and throw around some big data (really stats; but wanted to make it sound sexier)

Russell Westbrook

Year     PPG APG RPG

08-09    15.3 5.3 4.9

09-10    16.1 8.0 4.9

Derrick Rose

Year      PPG APG RPG

08-09    16.8 6.3 3.9

09-10     20.8 6.0 3.8

Michael Carter Williams

Year      PPG APG RPG

13-14     16.7 6.3 6.2

14-15     15.0 7.4 6.2

Not too shabby, huh? How should the Sixers fan feel if next year MCW really turned the corner and averaged 20, 8, and 8? Sure there is the attraction of getting a younger player through the draft, but this guy is only is his 2nd year and was the Rookie of the Year. I have no problem trading older players for young talent and developing them. But when you have a guy that can play, and whose numbers match those of all-star point guards in their second year, why the heck do you trade him for a draft pick?

I don't understand this whole philosophy that you have to tank or be really bad to get better. I believe there are more creative ways to get competitive. The Sixers might have traded for Isiah Thomas to play alongside MCW and KJ to make the 8th seed. Put a competitive team on the court and let fans know that you care about winning. Instead, they are putting prison food on a plate and charging steak house prices.

When I own my NBA team someday, I vow to never tank. Next year, they get Embid back and that dude they stashed in Europe. So even if they don't make the playoffs, why not put together a winning culture and build on top of it?

I feel bad for the fans, the city. The Sixers organization is a bunch of clowns. I hope fans stop going to the games and season-ticket holders ask for their money back. The NBA should really fine them. I know it's a league run by billionaires but I believe they have a duty to put together the most competitive product on the court…for the fans in the city and for the integrity of the game.

Homecoming: The Brand- By Girish Mirchandani (@RealGStandard)

 

On the surface, LeBron coming home is an amazing tale— a Hollywood type of feel good story of redemption, forgiveness, and going back to your roots. I get it. And I love it. As a fan of sports, this is amazing. No doubt about it. But I truly believe this is much more than just being back home in Northern Ohio for LeBron and why the man behind the brand is going to really benefit.

Apparently, LeBron spends his summer at his home in Akron with his family. An NBA athlete is not really home much anyway, you are on the road for about six to eight months. The NBA is a very long season with training camp starting in October and ending in June for championship teams—not if you play for Milwaukee or Philadelphia though, those seasons will end in April. But I am digressing. And with LeBron’s wealth, if he really wanted to be home with his family, he technically could still make Akron his home base and fly in and out to Miami—I don’t think he needs to use miles.

My point is, I don’t completely buy the whole “I am coming home” campaign as about doing it solely for Northern Ohio. That could be part of the reason, and a noble one indeed. However, I really believe LeBron is getting good advice that his personal brand is going to win big by coming home.

When LeBron left Cleveland, he did not do so with grace. And the media destroyed him rightfully so—including myself. I am considering myself part of the media—thank you to all of my six blog followers for being so loyal and faithful to me. But back to my point. LeBron became perceived as part villain in the media—a kid who left his loyal fans for greener pastures and turned his back on his hometown. And I believe his brand image was really damaged and although he won championships, he potentially lost millions in endorsement deals. And you might say, hold on, his endorsement earnings went up each year even after he went to Miami (from Forbes: http://onforb.es/1nebAUC). I still believe that LeBron is clearly more marketable by being in Cleveland. How many LeBron ads did you see in the NBA Finals? There was a lot more of “Cliff Paul”. If you were running a brand, who would you rather back, the hometown kid from Akron or the South Beach star? How many more endorsement deals is LeBron going to get by going home?

I have no way of proving this right now, this is just based on common sense. I don’t have any big data analytics to use and I barely remember how to perform regression analysis from my stats class in my MBA program. But I truly believe, LeBron is going to take his brand image to a whole new level. LeBron is now the good guy again, beloved by his hometown, and a hero in Cleveland. And if I am marketer, I would be willing to bank on that.